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June 21, 2005

100,000 Deaths in Iraq!!! Kill the Government!!! Kill Bush!!!

OK, let's just gather our breath for one second here. 100,000 people? That's a lot. I wonder where it came from? According to Anthony Cox at Black Triangle, it comes from the Lancet, an established medical journal. So it must be true!!! Kill the Government!!!

Hmm. Let's have a look at the report itself.

Findings We estimate that 98000 more deaths than expected (8000-194000) happened after the invasion outside of Falluja ...

So that's a confidence interval of 8000 - 194000, which is quite a large gap. I make it 1.4 orders of magnitude! The figure of 98000 deaths could in fact be quite a lot lower (or indeed higher).

So there we are, another myth debunked by statistics.


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